Sunday, March 22, 2020

YOUTH! Covid 19 Susceptibility and Social Responsibility

What Covid 19 looks like on the molecular level from CDC electron microscope magnifications
I have refrained from writing about Covid 19 because I have been in shock. I came out of it yesterday after I wrote "The Plague, March 2020," on my blog A Christian Apologist's Sonnets. 

First, are excerpts from a letter signed by MDs in Brookline, Mass to the school community. If you want the names of the doctors, leave a comment I will include them.

"This is a coronavirus that is new to the human population. Although it is related to the viruses that cause colds, and acts a lot like them in many ways, nobody has ever been exposed to this before, which means nobody has any immunity to it."
Wear gloves any time you go outside. Wash them after you return, then dispose. (Carole Di Tosti)
"The virus is now moving explosively through the human population, spreading through respiratory secretions and 10 times more contagious that the flu or cold. Although many people will recover, about 20% will wind up with a serious pneumonia that will require hospitalization. Some will be so ill from the pneumonia that they will die. We estimate this may be 2-3%, but it is higher in Italy’s experience, partially because the healthcare system was overwhelmed so rapidly. In those over age 70, the death rate is 8-20%. So if a child catches it on a playdate, they can easily transmit it to their grandmother as easily as touching the same doorknob or countertop."
"Scientists measure the spread of an epidemic by a number called R0, or “R naught.” That number is calculated this way. For every person who develops the illness, how many other people do they give it to before they are cured (or dead) and no longer infectious? The R0 for coronavirus appears to be a number close to 3 – an extremely frightening number for such a deadly disease."
Self-monitor (Carole Di Tosti)
If you catch the virus, this is what happens. 
1)You will give it to three other people.
2)Those people will EACH give Covid 19 to three others.
3)Those three people will give Covid 19 to three other people. The spread becomes exponential.

Here is the math, where you, the “index case,” are the first line:

1  (index case)
14,348,907  (exponential increase)

"In just 15 steps of transmission, the virus has gone from just one index case to 14.3 million other people. Those 15 steps might take only a few weeks. With school out and lots of playdates, maybe less. The first person may be young and healthy Brookline child, but many of those 14 million people will be old and sick, and they will likely die because they got a virus that started in a child's throat and then was shed to others."

"R0 is not fixed – it can be lowered by control measures. If we can get the number below 1, the epidemic will die out. This is the point of the quarantines and social distancing, but we are not doing it fast enough."

According to global expert Dr. Fauci, after studying data from CDC in the US, more than 4000 cases showed about 40% of those who were hospitalized for the virus as of March 16, were among YOUNG PEOPLE. The ones hospitalized were in the ages from 20-54. Among the most critical cases of these ON THEIR WAY OUT OF LIFE, 12% were among ages 20-44. And 36% for those in intensive care on ICUs were those 45-64.
Follow CDC guidelines. Tylenol not Ibuprofen if you have a headache (Carole Di Tosti)

The FALLACY is that the disease fells only those 70-year-olds and up. FALSE! It was found in a six year old in Florida who was loved and hugged and kissed and spread it to all she/he was in contact with. EVEN A BABY tested positive for Covid 19.

If you are under 70 years old, you are accountable for spreading the disease if you do not practice social distancing, do not monitor yourself, do not wash your hands. You may have no symptoms and may pass the disease to your family and end up in the ICU on a respirator. 

For a twenty-year old this is unthinkable. THINK AGAIN. Do you have any underlying disease that Covid 19 may expose? You may discover you do because Covid 19 is a crucible that challenges your immune system. If you do have a congenital defect, once exposed to coronavirus it may click in and send you spiraling down the rabbit hole. If you pick it up, though you may be asymptomatic, you most probably are a super carrier and can spread it to everyone in your household. For older adults this may be a devastation. For younger siblings this may be a trip to intensive care. Their chances are better because their immune systems may be more resilient. 
Use wipes to disinfect, especially if you have been outside keeping a socially responsible 6' distance (Carole Di Tosti) 
However, a grandma in Modena, Italy who is 95-years-old recovered from Covid 19, where decades younger individuals died. Why? Well, being 95-years-old is not a death sentence. Many additional variables obtain. Each individual though is affected with some similarities, also responds uniquely.

If we only knew what this NOVEL disease was. But we are in the DARK AGES of "enlightened science." IT'S LIKE THE PLAGUES OF OLD WHERE NO ONE KNEW WHAT CAUSED IT AND HOW TO STOP IT. 

The only weapon we have is to do what they did during THE PLAGUE. 
The Plague Doctor's hazmat outfit circa 1650 Edinburgh, Scotland (Carole Di Tosti)*

Whether you are young or old, this is about social responsibility. Social distancing. It is about avoiding mingling with 2 people or more of individuals not family members. It is about keeping six feet distance between people. Yes. We are all responsible. Yes, we are our brothers' keepers because we look to our brothers to keep us as well.

Stay safe=healthy and maintain social distancing.

*The photo of The Plague Doctor was taken from a tile I purchased 7 months ago in Edinburgh, UK after I took a tour of the underground streets and living quarters of the Old, Old Town that have been made into a museum of the life and times of citizens who lived there in the 1700s. The city suffered through the Bubonic Plague. The outfit protected the wearer from contagion. Inside the bird's beak were herbs like lavender and rosemary that prevented inhalation of the droplets spread by the disease victim. It was an effective garment that covered the wearer from head to foot with gloved hands. Things don't change much, it would seem regarding today's protective gear,   hazmat suits are white, the masks quite unbirdlike, without herbs but with respirators.

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